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Leading & Empowering Organizations to Plan & Design Programs & Environments for Work, Learning, and Recreation!
tpeg@tfpg.org

Four Steps to Obtain Population Forecasts


1.  We establish a basic data set from demographic variables for business, health care, recreation, and school organizations.
2.  For public schools, all you do is send us current enrollment data at this link <<  Population Forecasting >>.
3.  We develop an up-to-date demographic analysis for your service area.
4.  Within a reasonable time frame, we provide the population forecast according to the medium you select, which may be an online presentation in pdf or a bound report.  If you need a formal presentation of our findings, we will make arrangements to hold a meeting and explain our process and findings.

About Forecasting Population

We customize population forecasting models based on demographic data.  Our models utilize various statistical forecasting techniques such as Bayesian, regression, and grade progression. The TPEG serves business, health care, recreation  operations, school districts, planning districts, and state agencies.  We will contract to deliver a population forecast for 5 to 50 years into the future, depending on your needs.

Request  Data Entry Forms!

 Below, we have developed a general example of a basic school system-level 5-year forecast:

The System Forecast by Grade Level

n = 5 years in the forecast.

Name of School or System

Forecast Year (1 )

... to ...

Forecast Year (5) 

Grade Levels




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Totals by Grade Levels

TGL1


... to ...

TGL5


 


 

System Totals

 


 

Elementary Schools

EST1
... to ...

EST5

Middle Schools

MST1

... to ...

MST5

High Schools

HST1
... to ...

HST5

 

 


 

School System - Grand Total

GT1

... to ...

GT5


Let us teach you how to do the student population forecast.  More >>

Here is one example of a student population density map with 5 density levels created from Census and GIS Data!
This same service area contracted with TPEG to complete a demographic analysis for the purpose of locating a new hospital.  We used time, distance, and density variables in our locater models for locating the hospital.  The density aspects of the student population analysis helped guide our location analysis for the hospital.

Density Map

Maps such as this may further be broken down into census tract and block levels.

  Tanner Planning & Evaluation Group